Year Of Linux On Desktop?

Every year we read about "the year of Linux on Desktop", but those articles always seem to fail to explain how do they measure it. What does have to happen for us to definitively say "this is the year of Linux"?

Here's some data...

Market share growth from November 2009 to November 2010:

Micrsoft OS's: -02.77% 
Apple OS's:    +30.86% 
Linux:         +53.00% 
(using this statistics as a data source)

I don't know what "Year Of Linux On Desktop" means, but I, for one, see a winner in 2010: Linux.


  1. It also matters what is 53% out of.

    It's not the same to grow 53% of 5 millions or 30% of 100 millions.
    I think the worst thing about having a large scale Linux mass of users is that there are dozens of distributions and they don't work together as just ONE to kill MS OS. It's like having 10 kinds of Firefox, all similar but still having different kind of interface, ways of installing plugins, etc. It will never work like this, but having just one Firefox lowered the use of IE from 90% to 50% global (with help from EU anti monopole laws forcing MS not to distribute win with IE & European higher understanding of computer software - see Germany's/Finland/etc. most used browser).

    From my point of view, go Linux (I use one distribution on a fileserver)!

  2. Indeed, and I'm sorry if my blog post was too short. If you see the link regarding where the stats are calculated from, you'll see all the data you are questioning, in particular:

    Nov. 2009 - Windows 90.52%; Apple 6.48%; Linux 1.00%
    Nov. 2010 - Windows 88.01%; Apple 8.48%; Linux 1.53%

    Regarding about the "large scale Linux mass of users", I see that as an advantage: you might not like the way Debian puts stability above the rest, or not like the way Fedora manages your packages, or not like the way Ubuntu tunes up its interface, but I'm sure there's one Linux distro to make you happy. No such luck with Windows...

  3. Curiosity stats: if the tendency is maintained, Apple will surpass Windows in 2018, Linux will surpass Windows in 2019, Linux surpasses Apple in 2021. Of course, market dynamics dictate an "harder than that" road for both Apple and Linux.

  4. OS Yearly growth (from October to October):
    2005 - Windows -00.87%; Apple 26.46%; Linux 03.45%
    2006 - Windows -01.47%; Apple 31.63%; Linux 26.67%
    2007 - Windows -02.49%; Apple -17.56%; Linux 113.16%
    2008 - Windows -01.48%; Apple 23.32%; Linux 43.21%
    2009 - Windows -13.10%; Apple -06.30%; Linux 20.83%
    2010 - Windows -04.45%; Apple 40.03%; Linux 56.25%
    2011 - Windows -02.55%; Apple 26.16%; Linux 68.67%